The allegation might seem far fetched and unrealistic in light of the
fact, that before 2019 there will be no Azeri or Black sea gas on the market= Recent
developments however underscore the opposite – diversification in SEE is within
reach sooner that normally believed.
New quantities emerged on the gas market after the reverse gas flows came
into play. The practical denouncement of the restrictions on re-export of
Russian gas as well as increased indigenous production contributed in their own
way. But the headline grabber was news that US producers will start exporting
shale gas to Europe at the end of this year.
More than 60 bcm of liquefied shale gas will reach EU
shores by 2020, which will not on;y make of the shortfalls in EU production but
will comprise more than 50% of the volumes that Gazprom and Statoil currently sell.
The basic quantities have been already contracted, with the bulk of the
US shale gas going to hubs in the UK, Holland, Italy and Germany. But
sufficient volumes will be left for sale in South East Europe.
Whereas the issue of the entry point of US LNG gas from the North is
resolved with two LNG terminals already in place, the entry point in SEE is
still open – with new projects on the drawing board and two existing terminals
that could be used in the interim.
Hooking up to the global LNG market is an essential factor for the
stability and security of gas supplies in the region as most of the dynamics in
the global gas market are due to take place in the global LNG segment. This
makes access to LNG imports a must for an optimal and stable gas source mix.
Prices in Asia are remaining lower than in Europe and the forecasts are
for more of the same or for price alignment in the mid term.
The entry into operation of the Sabina Pass terminal in the US will add
credence to the comments made at highest US official levels – that US shale gas
us ready to compete in Europe and Asia with incumbents.
The Europeans will have a choice whether to pay for US shale gas or start
producing their own, including through fracking.
Those that still doubt that US shale gas LNG will be able to compete on
price with Russian and Norwegian gas are wrong. The first contracts are already
signed and commitmenta made for over 30 billion cubic meters of US shale gas. There
is no way that would have happened in the most competitive segments of the EU
market with prices not competitive to Gazprom.
The main reason is that whilst Gazprom production costs have risen, due hiking
overheads associated with the strategic “streams”
whims of Kremlin, those of the American companies are steadily dropping, thanks
to economies of scale, the link with shale oil and mostly because of
technological advances,
There is one thing certain – the European consumers will benefit. Soon to
see,
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