събота, 21 ноември 2015 г.

From Viva to Vovacom? - trying to read into the underlying context

The news is out and our team has been able to confirm earliest predictions and analyses. 
What is less known is the role of the Greek Olympia group in the whole drama.
Media reports on the deal in the Bulgarian press close to the Peevski media group reflect more a PR stunt aimed at creating a perception of a genuine "competition" and a tough battle between the consortium Olympia Group/Third point leading to a fair market price. 
The nature of the involvement of Third point is less known and our experts express legitimate doubt as to their role in the whole process.
We believe that the presence of Olympia group in the final auction has legitimized the whole process as an withdrawal would have exposed the whole scheme.
Mark Schneider's bid was substantially higher but he missed the final auction. Sources in the industry refer to a great interest by financial investors that have been consistently and deliberately turned down by the VTB and the appointed sales advisers - Ernst&Young.
We are aware of the close relationship between a key player behind the scenes - Mrs. Iren Krasteva, mother of the notorious Delyan Peevski and the Greek telecom tycoon Panos Germanos - majority owner of Olympia group with a long track record of business with and in Bulgaria.
Our experts believe the trio - Velchev brothers and Spas Roussev on their own would have been unable to secure the benign neglect to the deal of the Bulgarian Prime Minister. This could have been made possible only through Mr. Peevski's taking a key role in distributing the proceeds from the resale of the assets to the ultimate owner.
Hereinbelow are preliminary estimates of the potential losses to the budget, the minority shareholders and the bankruptcy estate - as in the case of a Vivacom transparent sale the price could have reached ceteris paribus the expected levels of 5 times the EBITDA. 

Vivacom EBITDA 2014, EUR m 171.0
ЕUR million Spas Rusev Мark Schneider Bid  Telekom Serbia Low Тelekom Serbia High
ЕV / EBITDA4.1x5.0x5.2x5.8x
Price of 100% Vivacom shares achieved in the "auction" 330.0 473.0 512.2 614.8
Net debt at BTC 377.0 377.0 377.0 377.0
Enterprise Value Total  707.0 850.0 889.2 991.8
VTB loan plus interest 176.0 176.0 176.0 176.0
For distribution to shareholders 154.0 297.0 336.2 438.8
76.6% of it due to KTB / the government  118.0 227.5 257.5 336.1
Loss for KTB / the government from the rigged sale -  109.5 139.6 218.2

Note: This short analysis is based on public information.

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